Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -4.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -2.0 (+2.0) | 155.7 (+4.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -3.8 (+0.2) | 156.2 (+3.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -4.0 (-0.0) | 156.5 (+3.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -3.5 (+0.5) | 157.3 (+2.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MCN 66 – 63 NOLA |
| Jan 24, 2026 | MCN 82 – 63 NOLA |
| Feb 15, 2025 | MCN 78 – 64 NOLA |
| Dec 28, 2024 | MCN 86 – 61 NOLA |
| Mar 7, 2024 | MCN 81 – 57 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 4-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#258) | -9.3 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.96 (#257) | -2.15 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#253) | -2.33 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#223) | 0.447 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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