Betting Lines
| Spread | OSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | OSU -5.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -4.1 (-7.1) | 129.4 (+9.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -5.5 (-8.5) | 133.2 (+5.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -4.6 (-7.6) | 133.6 (+5.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -4.4 (-7.4) | 132.1 (+6.9) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | OSU 94 – 62 PSU |
| Jan 27, 2026 | OSU 84 – 78 PSU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OSU 83 – 64 PSU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | OSU 79 – 67 PSU |
| Dec 9, 2023 | PSU 83 – 80 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#25) | 6.5 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#38) | 1.03 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#35) | 1.35 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#41) | 0.519 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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