Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -155 CREI +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +27 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -2.4 (-29.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -1.6 (-28.6) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.1 (-30.1) | 136.1 (+6.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.4 (-30.4) | 135.3 (+7.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -2.1 (-29.1) | 135.1 (+7.9) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 12-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#40) | 8.5 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#4) | 2.40 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.85 (#9) | 2.84 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#5) | 0.572 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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