Betting Lines
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | ND -105 VT -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +7 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -2.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+37.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -2.2 (-4.8) | 130.9 (+36.1) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -0.5 (-6.5) | 134.6 (+32.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -1.1 (-5.9) | 135.8 (+31.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -1.1 (-5.9) | 131.7 (+35.3) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VT 89 – 76 ND |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VT 65 – 63 ND |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VT 82 – 76 ND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ND 74 – 66 VT |
| Mar 8, 2023 | VT 67 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#56) | 11.6 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#47) | 1.41 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#51) | 1.81 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#38) | 0.554 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 22.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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