Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +5 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | BAY -8.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -9.1 (-14.1) | 130.8 (+8.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -9.3 (-14.3) | 135.2 (+3.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -9.2 (-14.2) | 133.8 (+5.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -8.2 (-13.2) | 131.8 (+7.2) | 82% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Apr 4, 2026 | OU 82 – 69 BAY |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BAY 79 – 62 OU |
| Feb 9, 2023 | BAY 82 – 72 OU |
| Jan 21, 2023 | BAY 62 – 60 OU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | BAY 65 – 51 OU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 19.6 (#5) | 11.2 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#3) | 1.86 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.36 (#4) | 2.61 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#10) | 0.536 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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