Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +12 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -0.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -0.4 (+12.4) | 133.5 (-9.5) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -0.0 (+12.0) | 133.7 (-9.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -0.1 (+12.1) | 133.9 (-9.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -0.4 (+11.6) | 136.7 (-12.7) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | NCCU 83 – 76 UMES |
| Mar 3, 2026 | NCCU 77 – 73 UMES |
| Feb 2, 2026 | NCCU 65 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UMES 68 – 59 NCCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | NCCU 88 – 69 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 6-8 |
| Home | 9-2 | 6-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 62.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#295) | -8.5 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#265) | -1.49 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#287) | -2.11 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#213) | 0.457 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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