Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -5.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -4.2 (+0.8) | 128.1 (+8.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -4.5 (+0.5) | 128.1 (+8.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -4.3 (+0.7) | 128.7 (+8.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -4.2 (+0.8) | 129.3 (+7.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2023 | GCU 76 – 64 SHSU |
| Mar 11, 2023 | GCU 78 – 75 SHSU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | GCU 72 – 68 SHSU |
| Feb 27, 2022 | GCU 67 – 41 SHSU |
| Jan 22, 2022 | SHSU 58 – 56 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-8 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#91) | 1.2 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#86) | 0.24 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#89) | 0.19 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#97) | 0.524 (#127) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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