Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | ARK -160 LSU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -2.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LSU -0.8 (+12.8) | 141.8 (+4.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -1.3 (+13.3) | 140.8 (+5.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -1.8 (+13.8) | 139.7 (+6.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LSU -1.5 (+13.5) | 142.4 (+3.6) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | ARK 91 – 62 LSU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | ARK 85 – 81 LSU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | ARK 70 – 58 LSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | LSU 78 – 74 ARK |
| Mar 7, 2024 | ARK 94 – 83 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#19) | 16.1 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#21) | 2.36 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#20) | 2.98 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#26) | 0.593 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 25.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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