Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | TOL -240 AKR +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -7.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.9 (-12.9) | 140.1 (-8.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -5.7 (-13.7) | 143.4 (-11.4) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -5.3 (-13.3) | 144.2 (-12.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -5.6 (-13.6) | 140.7 (-8.7) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | AKR 79 – 76 TOL |
| Jan 28, 2026 | AKR 91 – 81 TOL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | AKR 100 – 90 TOL |
| Mar 5, 2025 | AKR 96 – 87 TOL |
| Jan 15, 2025 | AKR 85 – 78 TOL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-5 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 63.9 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#71) | 0.7 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#74) | 0.46 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#87) | 0.52 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#44) | 0.531 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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