Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -250 MORG +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -8.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -5.5 (+3.5) | 141.6 (-6.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -6.8 (+2.2) | 142.1 (-7.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -6.8 (+2.2) | 142.0 (-7.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -7.7 (+1.3) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | MORG 90 – 84 NORF |
| Jan 27, 2026 | MORG 79 – 78 NORF |
| Mar 14, 2025 | NORF 58 – 55 MORG |
| Feb 25, 2025 | NORF 69 – 60 MORG |
| Jan 14, 2025 | MORG 78 – 74 NORF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 7-6 |
| Home | 11-0 | 8-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#178) | -9.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#149) | -1.48 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#161) | -1.91 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#130) | 0.456 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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