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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–12 on winners spread MAE 11.8 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wright State @ Purdue +18.8 164.5 96% 52–96 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Duke +20.9 140.2 97% 52–92 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Kentucky +30.5 147.9 100% 55–80 ✓
Colgate @ Cornell +19.8 147.3 96% 68–78 ✓
Winthrop @ Middle Tennessee +14.5 144.8 91% 65–76 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Chattanooga +21.2 134.5 97% 62–69 ✓
William & Mary @ Norfolk State +19.9 128.5 96% 74–91 ✓
Boston University @ Northeastern +8.5 134.9 78% 48–49 ✓
James Madison @ Eastern Kentucky +20.0 133.0 97% 79–78 ✗
Creighton @ Nebraska +9.4 134.2 80% 77–69 ✗
South Carolina State @ Georgia +18.3 144.0 95% 60–76 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Cincinnati +12.5 138.7 87% 66–89 ✓
Georgia State @ Richmond -1.1 148.3 46% 78–94 ✗
Lafayette @ Pennsylvania +15.8 165.6 93% 57–85 ✓
NJIT @ Rutgers +6.4 121.4 72% 61–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Pittsburgh -1.0 126.7 46% 51–59 ✗
Jacksonville @ UCF +14.0 142.7 90% 54–63 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Troy +4.1 126.7 64% 65–69 ✓
Hofstra @ Iona -0.7 150.2 47% 74–82 ✗
Yale @ Siena -7.1 137.3 26% 82–54 ✓
Lehigh @ Monmouth +29.0 145.8 100% 75–85 ✓
South Alabama @ Alabama +15.1 151.3 91% 68–73 ✓
Saint Louis @ Memphis +10.0 149.7 82% 74–90 ✓
Virginia @ Houston +22.1 134.7 98% 47–67 ✓
Southern @ Rice +1.0 134.2 54% 63–81 ✓
Murray State @ Illinois State +12.2 151.6 87% 77–65 ✗
Alabama State @ Iowa State +14.0 147.8 90% 60–68 ✓
Tarleton State @ Wichita State +11.6 124.0 85% 51–65 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Northwestern +18.6 144.7 95% 67–83 ✓
Chicago State @ Loyola Chicago +21.8 142.8 98% 56–92 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Arlington -9.4 142.9 20% 80–71 ✓
NC State @ Central Connecticut -7.9 148.0 24% 79–65 ✓
High Point @ Notre Dame +19.8 138.0 96% 61–70 ✓
North Carolina @ Charleston +12.7 174.9 88% 94–83 ✗
American University @ Georgetown -3.5 138.5 37% 57–79 ✗
Denver @ UTSA -9.6 132.8 19% 64–78 ✗
Seton Hall @ Michigan +3.8 133.3 64% 67–65 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Iowa +32.3 146.8 100% 69–86 ✓
Nevada @ Santa Clara +15.0 158.4 91% 74–96 ✓
North Dakota State @ Arizona +21.0 139.9 97% 45–97 ✓
BYU @ Oregon +11.9 144.2 86% 81–49 ✗
Jackson State @ California Baptist +12.5 138.0 87% 64–77 ✓
George Washington @ Cal State Fullerton +13.0 144.2 88% 59–74 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M +26.9 138.8 99% 39–73 ✓
Denver @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -8.4 139.9 22% 67–69 ✗
Central Connecticut @ UMass Lowell +7.9 134.5 76% 53–77 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ UTSA +3.3 119.2 62% 57–60 ✓
Merrimack @ Army +6.0 124.3 71% 51–74 ✓
Boston College @ Rhode Island +2.1 133.9 58% 49–57 ✓
Long Island University @ UConn +37.2 155.3 100% 40–93 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.