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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–11 on winners
spread MAE 11.0
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Illinois
@
Marquette
|
-1.5 | 145.3 | 45% | 66–67 | ✗ |
St. Thomas
@
Fordham
|
+0.2 | 148.2 | 51% | 78–84 | ✓ |
The Citadel
@
Presbyterian
|
-1.6 | 135.1 | 44% | 70–74 | ✗ |
North Carolina A&T
@
South Florida
|
+2.0 | 110.7 | 57% | 54–56 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
UNC Greensboro
|
+22.5 | 139.1 | 98% | 48–55 | ✓ |
Radford
@
Virginia Tech
|
+35.4 | 134.0 | 100% | 39–65 | ✓ |
Bryant
@
Clemson
|
+12.5 | 137.6 | 87% | 70–93 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Massachusetts
|
+0.4 | 143.7 | 52% | 56–81 | ✓ |
Holy Cross
@
Quinnipiac
|
+17.0 | 149.0 | 94% | 68–76 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Old Dominion
|
+16.2 | 125.5 | 93% | 58–79 | ✓ |
Robert Morris
@
Ohio
|
+26.6 | 140.8 | 99% | 71–85 | ✓ |
Furman
@
Belmont
|
+14.6 | 157.1 | 91% | 89–95 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
Georgia Tech
|
+16.1 | 148.6 | 93% | 66–75 | ✓ |
Prairie View A&M
@
Texas Tech
|
+20.3 | 162.1 | 97% | 49–84 | ✓ |
Southern Miss
@
TCU
|
+21.2 | 129.8 | 97% | 51–83 | ✓ |
Kansas City
@
Missouri
|
+11.7 | 132.9 | 86% | 80–66 | ✗ |
Northwestern State
@
SMU
|
+10.1 | 148.3 | 82% | 48–95 | ✓ |
Maine
@
Colorado
|
+12.6 | 148.0 | 87% | 46–90 | ✓ |
Navy
@
Louisville
|
+8.0 | 137.2 | 77% | 60–77 | ✓ |
Montana
@
North Dakota
|
+7.6 | 138.2 | 76% | 77–79 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Eastern Illinois
|
+7.5 | 139.0 | 75% | 62–61 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Gonzaga
|
+17.6 | 148.0 | 94% | 57–84 | ✓ |
San Diego
@
California
|
-1.4 | 135.2 | 45% | 70–75 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Washington
|
+2.0 | 135.2 | 57% | 65–72 | ✓ |
Grambling
@
New Mexico
|
+16.6 | 150.7 | 93% | 61–86 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Wisconsin
|
+14.4 | 133.7 | 91% | 63–58 | ✗ |
Oregon State
@
Tulsa
|
+6.3 | 128.6 | 72% | 58–64 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
Arizona State
|
+10.0 | 131.2 | 82% | 63–72 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Utah
|
+26.7 | 132.6 | 99% | 55–86 | ✓ |
Sacramento State
@
Cal Poly
|
+12.6 | 138.3 | 87% | 58–57 | ✗ |
Idaho
@
Fresno State
|
+18.5 | 152.9 | 95% | 62–69 | ✓ |
Utah Valley
@
Pepperdine
|
+6.2 | 141.3 | 71% | 86–74 | ✗ |
Southern Utah
@
Saint Mary's
|
+11.7 | 144.9 | 86% | 51–70 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
UNLV
|
+0.1 | 115.5 | 50% | 62–64 | ✓ |
Long Beach State
@
UCLA
|
+15.3 | 164.0 | 92% | 79–100 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Stanford
|
+11.5 | 139.9 | 85% | 62–76 | ✓ |
UMass Lowell
@
Oklahoma State
|
-3.3 | 126.1 | 38% | 58–80 | ✗ |
USC
@
Florida Gulf Coast
|
+2.9 | 155.5 | 60% | 78–61 | ✗ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
|
+2.1 | 126.5 | 57% | 59–65 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+18.9 | 172.2 | 96% | 68–66 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Villanova
|
+11.2 | 147.2 | 85% | 81–100 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.