Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | AMCC -140 IUIN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -1.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -1.5 (+4.5) | 129.8 (-5.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -1.4 (+4.6) | 130.5 (-6.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -4.1 (+1.9) | 123.8 (+0.2) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 3-26 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 1-16 |
| Home | 9-4 | 2-11 |
| Away | 7-6 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 51.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#260) | -6.0 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#202) | -1.46 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#214) | -2.11 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.278 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | IUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.1% | 33.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.1% | 23.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 38.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 24.3% |
| ORB% | 46.2% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 57.6% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 39.1% |
Game Analysis
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