Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | FAU -18.0 (-20.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.6 (-38.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -9.2 (-11.2) | 158.7 (-24.7) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -10.2 (-12.2) | 160.6 (-26.6) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -9.9 (-11.9) | 163.2 (-29.2) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#145) | -6.1 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#245) | -1.16 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#252) | -1.52 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#274) | 0.471 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 48.6% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 38.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.1% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 32.2% |
Game Analysis
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