Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +19 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -12.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -12.0 (+7.0) | 144.7 (-23.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -16.5 (+2.5) | 144.8 (-23.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -13.2 (+5.8) | 144.6 (-23.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.3 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#164) | -1.3 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#130) | -0.60 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#128) | -0.87 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#205) | 0.250 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 81.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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