Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
University Credit Union Pavilion · November 16, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread SMC -11.0 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMC win
Actual SMC +19 121 Won
Massey SMC -12.6 (+6.4) — —
Massey Totals — 145.6 (-24.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 96% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 98% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SMC -12.0 (+7.0) 144.7 (-23.7) 83% ✓
Baseline ML SMC -16.5 (+2.5) 144.8 (-23.8) 84% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SMC -13.2 (+5.8) 144.6 (-23.6) 81% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMC SUU
Overall 26-8 23-12
Conference 12-3 14-6
Home 16-0 13-3
Away 6-4 8-8
Neutral 4-4 2-1
Last 5 2-0 0-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.5 75.9
Avg Pts Against 61.3 72.8
Massey 0.6 (#164) -1.3 (#201)
Bradley-Terry 0.53 (#130) -0.60 (#243)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.69 (#128) -0.87 (#250)
RPI 0.484 (#205) 0.250 (#274)
Shooting & Four Factors SMC SUU
FG% 46.9% 37.1%
3PT% 38.5% 34.6%
REB / G 35.5 41.0
OREB / G 11.5 14.0
AST / TO 1.29 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.8% 44.4%
TOV% 20.4% 17.3%
ORB% 35.9% 32.6%
FT Rate 24.8% 33.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.5% 56.7%
Opp TOV% 21.3% 15.8%
DRB% 80.0% 81.8%
Opp FT Rate 17.9% 25.0%

Game Analysis

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