Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +14 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | MIZ -11.5 (-25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -8.7 (-22.7) | 139.5 (+6.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -9.5 (-23.5) | 138.4 (+7.6) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -9.2 (-23.2) | 134.3 (+11.7) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#252) | -4.3 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#143) | -0.46 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#146) | -0.63 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.562 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 43.2% | 12.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 10.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 12.2% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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