Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PRES -125 CIT +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CIT -1.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -0.9 (+4.9) | 140.2 (+3.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -0.4 (+3.6) | 137.6 (+6.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -3.1 (+7.1) | 135.8 (+8.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2025 | PRES 69 – 41 CIT |
| Nov 14, 2023 | PRES 71 – 64 CIT |
| Nov 11, 2022 | CIT 70 – 58 PRES |
| Dec 22, 2020 | CIT 94 – 82 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#235) | 9.4 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#163) | 1.76 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#180) | 2.56 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#28) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 16.7% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 11.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 40.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 85.0% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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