Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Over |
| Money | FOR -410 STMN +330 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +6 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -0.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -0.2 (+5.8) | 145.5 (+16.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -0.3 (+6.3) | 146.6 (+15.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -0.9 (+6.9) | 146.2 (+15.8) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#203) | 9.0 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#191) | 1.11 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#201) | 1.63 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#274) | 0.550 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 49.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 60.7% |
| TOV% | 25.1% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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