Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +2 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -0.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -2.0 (+0.0) | 125.4 (+0.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -1.8 (+0.2) | 125.6 (+0.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#287) | 4.6 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#132) | 1.78 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#143) | 2.32 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.6% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 22.2% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.5% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 26.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 41.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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