Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +1 | 115 | Lost |
| Massey | CP -13.3 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -6.4 (-7.4) | 137.2 (-22.2) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CP -6.1 (-7.1) | 135.9 (-20.9) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-21 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 4-7 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.6 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#265) | -7.2 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#324) | -0.40 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#320) | -0.62 (#221) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 31.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 18.2% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 34.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 11.1% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 15.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 58.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 41.9% |
Game Analysis
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