Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -11.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -5.7 (+8.3) | 142.6 (-4.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -7.0 (+7.0) | 142.6 (-4.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -6.5 (+7.5) | 134.7 (+3.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | STAN 86 – 82 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#212) | -2.5 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#168) | 0.41 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#172) | 0.41 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 38.9% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.2% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.3% | 35.3% |
Game Analysis
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