Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | WASH -440 TXSO +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -1.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -1.3 (+5.7) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -1.5 (+5.5) | 137.4 (-0.4) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -2.4 (+4.6) | 136.2 (+0.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -4.3 (+2.7) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#317) | 0.9 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#313) | -0.67 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#315) | -0.87 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.263 (#272) | 0.562 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 45.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 20.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 34.1% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.3% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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