Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +7 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -17.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -15.5 (-8.5) | 150.3 (-19.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -19.8 (-12.8) | 147.6 (-16.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#136) | -5.6 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#140) | -1.78 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#133) | -2.45 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#136) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 48.4% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 23.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 59.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 78.0% | 78.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 4.6% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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