Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -19.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | GT -16.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -12.1 (-3.1) | 145.8 (-4.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -14.9 (-5.9) | 144.4 (-3.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -15.1 (-6.1) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 2-27 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 0-18 |
| Home | 9-10 | 2-11 |
| Away | 3-8 | 0-18 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L27 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#139) | -4.3 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#287) | -0.12 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#278) | -0.13 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.700 (#67) | 0.750 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 52.4% |
| REB / G | 43.5 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 14.1% |
Game Analysis
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