Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +32 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -20.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -17.6 (+14.4) | 133.8 (+0.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -21.3 (+10.7) | 133.1 (+0.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#188) | -10.6 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#147) | -1.78 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#147) | -2.61 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#274) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.4% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 10.5% |
| REB / G | 57.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 21.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.8% | 36.5% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 32.6% |
| ORB% | 45.7% | 17.9% |
| FT Rate | 36.9% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.2% | 41.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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