Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -29.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | VILL -3500 HOW +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +19 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -11.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -9.2 (+9.8) | 146.4 (+34.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -11.6 (+7.4) | 149.9 (+31.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -13.3 (+5.7) | 143.6 (+37.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 16-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#27) | 8.8 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#170) | 1.76 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#161) | 2.53 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#110) | 0.375 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 52.0% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 54.2% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.54 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 65.0% |
| TOV% | 9.7% | 26.3% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 43.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.6% | 27.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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