Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -16.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | ASU -1300 UNF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -10.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -9.1 (-0.1) | 132.3 (+2.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -7.0 (+2.0) | 134.6 (+0.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -7.3 (+1.7) | 134.6 (+0.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -9.1 (-0.1) | 132.2 (+2.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#228) | -2.0 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#311) | -0.82 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#291) | -1.11 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.388 (#239) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 25.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.49 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 28.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 13.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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