Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.0 Under |
| Money | SMU -2400 NWST +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +47 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -10.0 (+37.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -7.0 (+40.0) | 145.5 (-2.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -7.8 (+39.2) | 149.1 (-6.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -7.7 (+39.3) | 146.9 (-3.9) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 5-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 6-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 82.6 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#166) | 1.2 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#174) | -1.49 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#175) | -2.03 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#221) | 0.250 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 9.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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