Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | LOU -1000 NAVY +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +17 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -8.0 (+9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -5.2 (+11.8) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -6.0 (+11.0) | 139.6 (-2.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.9 (+10.1) | 136.6 (+0.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-10 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 60.8 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#237) | -0.1 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#184) | 0.49 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | 0.86 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.762 (#27) | 0.750 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 24.6% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 47.5 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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