Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USD -1.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -1.6 (+6.6) | 138.7 (+6.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -0.5 (+5.5) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -2.3 (+7.3) | 135.8 (+9.2) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#258) | 7.9 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#327) | 2.21 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.50 (#325) | 3.23 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#129) | 0.750 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 84.7% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.