Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +12 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | PEPP -5.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -3.2 (-15.2) | 140.7 (+19.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -4.7 (-16.7) | 140.6 (+19.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -4.3 (-16.3) | 137.4 (+22.6) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 11-2 |
| Away | 0-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L7 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 65.7 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#316) | -3.2 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#183) | -0.69 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#193) | -1.15 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.281 (#268) | 0.000 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.5% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.0% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 26.4% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 13.2% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 12.9% |
Game Analysis
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