Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +25 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -0.7 (+24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -0.5 (+24.5) | 141.8 (-4.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -1.2 (+23.8) | 144.0 (-7.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -0.5 (+24.5) | 141.9 (-4.9) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#236) | 7.3 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#180) | 1.80 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#186) | 3.48 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#274) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 51.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 56.7% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 38.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 11.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 83.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 8.9% |
Game Analysis
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