Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | USF -340 NCAT +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +2 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | USF -2.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -3.3 (-1.3) | 123.4 (-13.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -2.7 (-0.7) | 127.3 (-17.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -2.8 (-0.8) | 120.9 (-10.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#266) | 3.5 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#291) | -0.56 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#292) | -0.74 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#214) | 0.500 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 35.1% |
| 3PT% | 22.7% | 20.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.2% | 39.0% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.6% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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