Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -39.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +27 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -17.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -17.7 (+9.3) | 147.3 (-6.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -14.4 (+12.6) | 145.9 (-4.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -18.0 (+9.0) | 146.2 (-5.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -18.2 (+8.8) | 147.3 (-6.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 14-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 6-3 |
| Away | 5-1 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#29) | 2.5 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#61) | -1.30 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#59) | -1.75 (#300) |
| RPI | 1.000 (#1) | 0.319 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.3% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 34.9% |
Game Analysis
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