Betting Lines
| Spread | ODU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ODU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ODU +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ODU -15.7 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ODU -6.8 (+14.2) | 132.0 (+5.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ODU -7.4 (+13.6) | 131.9 (+5.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ODU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#122) | -3.1 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#228) | 0.53 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#216) | 0.67 (#130) |
| RPI | — | 0.750 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ODU | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 6.7% | 18.2% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.43 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 29.9% | 24.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.8% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 34.4% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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