What ever happened to Leon Trotsky? "No More Heroes" - The Stranglers
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–12 on winners spread MAE 8.2 48 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Penn State -12.7 151.8 16% 73–65 ✓
Nevada @ Fresno State -4.1 141.4 32% 66–65 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +11.1 134.0 86% 45–49 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Fullerton -1.3 154.2 43% 86–64 ✓
Purdue @ Wisconsin -4.9 145.0 28% 89–73 ✓
Wyoming @ New Mexico +6.8 149.2 81% 58–78 ✓
Colorado State @ Grand Canyon +2.5 139.6 66% 70–60 ✗
Kansas City @ Omaha +8.3 143.4 79% 73–66 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +10.4 137.7 84% 68–77 ✓
Florida @ Missouri -3.4 150.8 25% 74–76 ✗
UT Arlington @ Southern Utah -10.9 133.3 15% 86–77 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +0.2 153.6 51% 66–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State +8.3 157.1 81% 82–95 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +2.3 138.8 64% 107–110 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC San Diego +5.5 139.1 76% 73–83 ✓
Richmond @ Fordham -0.3 135.1 48% 83–75 ✓
Creighton @ Seton Hall +2.7 138.3 57% 54–56 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Canisius -2.9 136.0 33% 78–82 ✗
Manhattan @ Merrimack +5.5 141.7 76% 66–73 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -8.1 149.4 30% 66–69 ✗
UAB @ South Florida +6.2 158.3 71% 109–106 ✗
Denver @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +11.4 155.4 84% 88–92 ✓
New Haven @ Central Connecticut +6.0 129.2 73% 61–72 ✓
Marquette @ UConn +17.3 142.2 90% 57–73 ✓
Cleveland State @ Purdue Fort Wayne +8.7 152.1 83% 71–74 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -8.5 154.5 21% 81–77 ✓
Siena @ Rider -10.6 129.4 16% 74–65 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +11.2 142.9 86% 69–80 ✓
Fairfield @ Niagara -5.8 135.4 24% 83–75 ✓
Iona @ Marist +2.4 143.1 64% 38–83 ✓
Long Island University @ Chicago State -4.3 146.0 32% 74–55 ✓
Le Moyne @ Mercyhurst +1.3 134.3 54% 60–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Delaware -4.7 146.2 29% 52–67 ✗
Jacksonville State @ Liberty +10.5 135.3 84% 69–78 ✓
Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee +3.4 148.0 68% 67–68 ✓
UIC @ Valparaiso +3.1 140.9 63% 59–66 ✓
Indiana State @ Drake +8.0 150.7 79% 72–74 ✓
Robert Morris @ Oakland +2.2 156.4 59% 73–96 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky +7.5 135.3 80% 61–66 ✓
New Mexico State @ Missouri State -0.8 134.4 47% 82–89 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Evansville -8.7 128.7 18% 62–48 ✓
Tulsa @ North Texas -5.5 137.0 26% 67–72 ✗
Youngstown State @ Northern Kentucky +1.8 143.1 63% 79–94 ✓
Stonehill @ Wagner +8.1 139.8 83% 69–60 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Saint Francis -3.6 135.4 33% 82–85 ✗
UTEP @ Florida International +7.1 144.1 74% 64–76 ✓
Bradley @ Murray State +8.1 158.9 75% 66–86 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Belmont +9.4 159.8 82% 68–67 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.