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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
44–7 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
51 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+8.0 | 145.9 | 83% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 149.0 | 49% | 93–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 132.6 | 86% | 61–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.2 | 139.4 | 59% | 70–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 151.7 | 72% | 81–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 141.7 | 84% | 69–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 139.2 | 78% | 62–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 146.4 | 39% | 87–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 148.5 | 70% | 82–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 146.9 | 49% | 57–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.9 | 137.4 | 79% | 60–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 147.6 | 60% | 94–100 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.9 | 142.4 | 86% | 60–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.2 | 145.8 | 31% | 85–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 139.6 | 35% | 74–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.9 | 149.6 | 89% | 71–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 143.2 | 60% | 59–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 159.6 | 74% | 84–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 148.3 | 86% | 68–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.4 | 146.6 | 16% | 96–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+21.0 | 157.9 | 91% | 83–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.7 | 140.6 | 13% | 90–51 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.3 | 144.6 | 74% | 72–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 132.4 | 69% | 65–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 143.5 | 85% | 57–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-16.4 | 140.8 | 12% | 81–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 151.1 | 79% | 55–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 153.6 | 79% | 77–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.3 | 153.5 | 45% | 78–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 136.9 | 72% | 63–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 144.5 | 63% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 129.1 | 34% | 71–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.4 | 128.8 | 26% | 62–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 139.5 | 86% | 84–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 139.4 | 75% | 61–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.7 | 144.4 | 51% | 64–60 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 137.8 | 58% | 70–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 138.0 | 63% | 64–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 139.2 | 65% | 60–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.6 | 133.4 | 83% | 39–53 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 138.8 | 57% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 146.3 | 57% | 80–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.6 | 138.7 | 76% | 62–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 138.3 | 55% | 62–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 146.9 | 85% | 82–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 122.1 | 82% | 66–59 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.1 | 147.1 | 42% | 99–48 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.4 | 146.3 | 74% | 79–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.4 | 155.8 | 23% | 81–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 144.1 | 80% | 54–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 137.1 | 80% | 64–68 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.