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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
40–16 on winners
spread MAE 8.9
56 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+9.4 | 131.3 | 79% | 65–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.6 | 140.1 | 74% | 72–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 142.0 | 71% | 66–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 131.8 | 63% | 50–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 144.7 | 51% | 62–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 144.2 | 72% | 72–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 153.0 | 84% | 65–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 158.7 | 58% | 88–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 148.4 | 73% | 77–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 139.0 | 86% | 60–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 137.8 | 80% | 67–51 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.4 | 152.7 | 18% | 98–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 134.0 | 32% | 62–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.5 | 131.5 | 17% | 87–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 148.3 | 85% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 166.3 | 61% | 81–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.9 | 152.0 | 24% | 82–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 147.3 | 72% | 79–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 146.0 | 38% | 60–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.7 | 150.5 | 79% | 58–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 137.2 | 87% | 52–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 134.7 | 82% | 64–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 144.8 | 37% | 79–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 139.5 | 56% | 76–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.0 | 148.5 | 48% | 81–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 146.7 | 46% | 84–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 149.9 | 34% | 88–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 154.0 | 84% | 59–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 157.2 | 74% | 75–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 140.4 | 65% | 70–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.4 | 148.7 | 43% | 86–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 137.5 | 56% | 70–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.0 | 139.1 | 56% | 70–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.4 | 137.9 | 87% | 50–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 151.3 | 86% | 69–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 141.7 | 87% | 58–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 134.2 | 26% | 68–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.6 | 154.7 | 82% | 61–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 143.4 | 87% | 61–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 141.8 | 46% | 65–61 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.8 | 134.7 | 37% | 72–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 139.9 | 66% | 82–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.2 | 147.0 | 75% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 135.9 | 74% | 83–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 131.0 | 83% | 57–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.4 | 143.7 | 89% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 139.6 | 55% | 91–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.3 | 129.9 | 49% | 71–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.7 | 128.1 | 82% | 69–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 140.9 | 52% | 71–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.5 | 146.8 | 73% | 66–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 149.5 | 87% | 77–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 144.3 | 85% | 61–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 151.9 | 85% | 66–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 155.8 | 77% | 87–106 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 139.3 | 77% | 56–67 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.