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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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27–10 on winners spread MAE 10.4 55 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Omaha @ Kansas	+9.5	142.8	83%	50–95	✓
Nebraska @ Creighton	+9.3	153.0	75%	74–98	✓
Villanova @ Georgetown	-3.2	138.9	30%	76–63	✓
George Washington @ Delaware	—	—	—	65–68	—
Iona @ Fairfield	-6.3	138.5	27%	70–42	✓
Georgia Southern @ Davidson	—	—	—	45–77	—
Marist @ Canisius	—	—	—	72–81	—
South Carolina State @ Charleston	+11.4	137.0	84%	63–90	✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois	—	—	—	66–70	—
Niagara @ Saint Peter's	—	—	—	54–70	—
Milwaukee @ Kansas State	—	—	—	75–76	—
Iowa State @ Iowa	+18.5	158.5	89%	77–105	✓
Nevada @ Grand Canyon	+5.8	139.1	69%	77–87	✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State	+1.6	130.6	60%	67–74	✓
Marquette @ UCLA	+5.9	142.5	75%	60–69	✓
San José State @ Saint Mary's	—	—	—	61–96	—
Florida @ Florida State	+1.6	141.4	59%	71–83	✓
Wofford @ South Florida	—	—	—	56–58	—
Tennessee State @ IU Indianapolis	—	—	—	66–69	—
Florida Gulf Coast @ Miami	+11.2	134.0	73%	66–62	✗
Notre Dame @ Kentucky	+4.0	137.6	61%	64–63	✗
Kansas City @ Toledo	+13.1	134.8	87%	57–64	✓
Cincinnati @ Tennessee	—	—	—	56–65	—
Syracuse @ Boston College	-3.0	148.8	32%	101–63	✓
Stony Brook @ Bryant	—	—	—	72–81	—
North Carolina Central @ North Carolina	—	—	—	67–73	—
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas Tech	+18.5	132.3	88%	57–77	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Western Michigan	+2.8	132.8	46%	67–57	✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Tulane	+14.9	138.2	87%	56–67	✓
La Salle @ Drexel	+10.0	124.4	79%	58–48	✗
High Point @ UNC Asheville	+0.6	142.3	50%	67–80	✓
Texas A&M @ TCU	-2.9	132.3	33%	55–73	✗
South Alabama @ Southern Miss	+1.5	129.7	37%	76–75	✗
Mississippi State @ Dayton	-3.2	123.1	36%	82–85	✗
Utah Tech @ Denver	—	—	—	73–70	—
Oklahoma State @ Wichita State	-0.7	144.3	45%	67–64	✓
Idaho @ Cal State Bakersfield	+4.0	127.8	62%	66–76	✓
Western Carolina @ North Carolina A&T	-5.9	148.7	25%	104–98	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Pittsburgh	—	—	—	50–67	—
Wyoming @ Utah Valley	-5.3	150.3	23%	93–88	✓
Winthrop @ South Carolina Upstate	-6.7	153.7	29%	95–77	✓
UAB @ East Tennessee State	-5.5	136.1	22%	65–61	✓
Valparaiso @ Central Michigan	+3.2	144.8	61%	79–84	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Loyola Marymount	—	—	—	76–81	—
Old Dominion @ VCU	+5.2	137.8	65%	54–77	✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois	+8.4	142.1	76%	88–92	✓
UNC Wilmington @ Ole Miss	—	—	—	58–78	—
Stephen F. Austin @ UL Monroe	+2.3	142.6	67%	55–66	✓
Florida A&M @ Oklahoma	+9.8	145.1	85%	54–85	✓
Florida International @ North Florida	-7.1	149.7	35%	77–80	✗
Memphis @ Auburn	-6.9	144.6	26%	71–74	✗
UTEP @ Arizona	—	—	—	61–69	—
Rider @ Manhattan	—	—	—	77–87	—
Utah @ BYU	+3.7	139.6	72%	64–82	✓
North Dakota @ North Dakota State	-0.8	130.2	49%	52–53	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.