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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–13 on winners spread MAE 10.1 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington @ Oregon State -3.5 152.0 42% 67–55 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +11.6 141.8 87% 62–66 ✓
Lafayette @ Lehigh +2.0 130.7 63% 90–94 ✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois +9.8 130.9 82% 66–69 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan +7.4 134.1 76% 68–63 ✗
Marist @ Rider +0.8 133.9 54% 77–62 ✗
The Citadel @ Wofford +3.9 141.8 70% 64–77 ✓
Oakland @ Wright State +1.0 162.9 58% 74–60 ✗
Maine @ New Hampshire +4.1 139.7 71% 57–60 ✓
Nicholls @ Lamar +4.3 153.6 67% 56–75 ✓
Bellarmine @ Florida Gulf Coast +5.0 141.4 70% 52–63 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State +10.5 141.7 86% 68–77 ✓
Idaho @ Eastern Washington +11.3 144.0 86% 79–87 ✓
Indiana @ Purdue +17.6 155.5 90% 59–79 ✓
Tennessee @ Texas A&M -0.9 139.0 50% 69–85 ✗
UNLV @ New Mexico +11.8 154.3 85% 80–77 ✗
Arizona State @ Utah +12.1 146.7 83% 85–77 ✗
Virginia @ Florida State +1.3 131.2 35% 80–76 ✗
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University -3.3 148.4 38% 58–75 ✗
Jackson State @ Mississippi Valley State -12.2 132.8 13% 77–69 ✓
Southern Utah @ Grand Canyon +13.7 149.0 88% 65–94 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty +0.5 138.5 49% 62–65 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Riverside -8.2 135.5 20% 78–88 ✗
Portland State @ Idaho State +2.3 143.0 61% 65–68 ✓
Mississippi State @ Missouri -4.7 140.1 31% 75–51 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland -20.9 134.8 11% 76–51 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southern Indiana -3.4 137.2 41% 67–84 ✗
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +5.1 144.9 73% 72–63 ✗
New Mexico State @ UTEP +3.9 135.4 63% 49–74 ✓
Sacramento State @ Weber State +12.5 133.2 87% 53–58 ✓
Arizona @ Colorado -1.9 166.0 39% 99–79 ✓
Kansas State @ BYU +11.5 144.9 87% 66–72 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +4.8 148.3 75% 61–80 ✓
USC @ Stanford +3.6 151.8 68% 68–99 ✓
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +7.1 149.0 78% 70–71 ✓
San Diego @ Pacific -8.0 143.2 20% 89–84 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +4.7 146.1 72% 82–74 ✗
UC Davis @ Hawai'i +0.5 139.3 52% 70–87 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Wichita State -7.3 147.6 23% 95–82 ✓
Seton Hall @ Villanova +5.0 137.4 71% 54–80 ✓
Penn State @ Northwestern +6.3 150.5 77% 63–68 ✓
UAB @ Tulsa -0.7 153.8 44% 70–63 ✓
Charlotte @ Temple -5.5 136.3 28% 73–70 ✓
North Texas @ SMU +6.6 132.6 67% 68–71 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +6.1 163.3 75% 78–90 ✓
Rhode Island @ Massachusetts +10.4 152.8 83% 79–81 ✓
Bowling Green @ Louisiana +7.9 146.8 80% 60–86 ✓
Minnesota @ Iowa +5.1 149.8 69% 85–90 ✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC -0.3 137.3 47% 65–71 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.