Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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37–13 on winners spread MAE 9.9 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Binghamton @ UAlbany +6.9 145.1 73% 66–69 ✓
Cal Poly @ Long Beach State -4.4 161.1 34% 83–69 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield -6.3 145.9 28% 74–83 ✗
Sacramento State @ Weber State +4.1 132.9 64% 70–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Arizona State -8.3 151.7 23% 85–57 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +3.0 173.3 61% 75–100 ✓
Virginia @ Syracuse +1.3 138.2 55% 70–84 ✓
Duquesne @ Saint Louis +5.5 136.1 69% 88–90 ✓
USC @ UCLA +9.7 142.0 81% 63–90 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Northridge +11.4 149.3 85% 73–82 ✓
Oklahoma @ Texas +4.8 154.0 67% 76–72 ✗
Utah Valley @ Tarleton State -9.1 129.3 20% 71–66 ✓
UT Arlington @ California Baptist +6.7 148.4 73% 68–70 ✓
Furman @ Samford +2.7 155.2 60% 95–78 ✗
Hofstra @ Monmouth -3.0 132.9 39% 60–65 ✗
Pepperdine @ Oregon State +12.1 149.4 86% 77–73 ✗
Old Dominion @ Troy +11.2 133.8 85% 59–75 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Southeast Missouri State +2.3 138.9 58% 69–48 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton -12.6 147.1 13% 64–59 ✓
Seattle U @ Utah Tech -6.7 139.5 27% 70–65 ✓
Houston @ Baylor -6.4 134.4 28% 65–61 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona +2.3 146.1 58% 53–66 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara -3.7 136.6 37% 97–88 ✓
Utah @ BYU +11.1 155.0 84% 74–85 ✓
Nevada @ San Diego State +6.1 130.2 71% 61–80 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +8.6 163.3 78% 69–85 ✓
UC San Diego @ UC Davis -14.3 132.8 10% 68–57 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Washington State +2.2 149.0 58% 77–94 ✓
Michigan @ Michigan State +6.8 147.2 73% 62–79 ✓
Drexel @ Towson +1.4 126.4 55% 76–82 ✓
Navy @ Bucknell +7.3 146.6 75% 83–77 ✗
Winthrop @ High Point +7.2 167.9 74% 69–81 ✓
Iowa @ Nebraska +6.0 159.6 71% 83–68 ✗
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic +6.5 157.0 72% 53–81 ✓
Minnesota @ Rutgers +5.0 144.1 68% 67–75 ✓
Colgate @ American University +2.6 138.4 59% 62–72 ✓
North Alabama @ Lipscomb +5.8 146.4 70% 65–76 ✓
North Texas @ Temple -5.5 137.3 31% 61–66 ✗
UAB @ Tulane -0.3 157.2 49% 68–85 ✗
Tulsa @ Wichita State +12.4 143.8 87% 73–63 ✗
Bradley @ Drake +2.4 127.7 58% 48–63 ✓
Delaware @ William & Mary +2.5 170.0 59% 100–78 ✗
Oregon @ Washington -7.4 148.0 25% 80–73 ✓
Furman @ Chattanooga +1.7 150.3 56% 80–77 ✗
UTSA @ Charlotte -0.5 153.5 48% 83–80 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Wilmington +5.9 141.3 70% 65–79 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +6.9 138.3 73% 48–62 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama -3.2 140.3 38% 74–71 ✓
VMI @ Wofford +9.3 142.5 80% 65–85 ✓
Weber State @ Northern Colorado +9.8 151.9 81% 52–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.