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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
6–7 on winners
spread MAE 10.4
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth
@
Charleston
|
+6.6 | 153.1 | 73% | 78–79 | ✓ |
Incarnate Word
@
SE Louisiana
|
+2.7 | 140.5 | 60% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Pepperdine
@
Santa Clara
|
+16.4 | 157.0 | 93% | 78–76 | ✗ |
Troy
@
James Madison
|
-3.5 | 137.5 | 38% | 79–60 | ✓ |
St. Thomas-Minnesota
@
Omaha
|
-3.2 | 158.5 | 38% | 75–85 | ✗ |
Northern Arizona
@
Montana
|
+3.2 | 149.9 | 61% | 65–74 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
San Francisco
|
+5.9 | 152.9 | 71% | 75–86 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Towson
|
+5.0 | 149.6 | 68% | 82–72 | ✗ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Northwestern State
|
-4.4 | 135.7 | 34% | 63–66 | ✗ |
Arkansas State
@
Troy
|
-2.3 | 141.4 | 42% | 81–94 | ✗ |
Wofford
@
Furman
|
+0.1 | 141.6 | 50% | 92–85 | ✗ |
Oakland
@
Robert Morris
|
+2.4 | 141.0 | 59% | 76–79 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Idaho State
|
-0.5 | 141.1 | 48% | 80–60 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.