Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Fairfield Stags
83 – 74
FINAL Conference
Quinnipiac Bobcats
Metro Conference · Leo D. Mahoney Arena · March 9, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread QUIN -1.5 Home covered
O/U 145.5 Over
Money FAIR +110 / QUIN -130
Model Predictions
Spread Total FAIR win
Actual FAIR +9 157 Won
Massey QUIN -6.0 (+15.0) — —
Massey Totals — 145.8 (+11.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 33% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 22% ✗
Baseline Plus ML QUIN -5.4 (+14.4) 142.3 (+14.7) 32% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ QUIN -5.3 (+14.3) 142.1 (+14.9) 31% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML QUIN -5.0 (+14.0) 141.5 (+15.5) 30% ✗
Baseline ML QUIN -4.3 (+13.3) 141.4 (+15.6) 32% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 22, 2026 FAIR 85 – 79 QUIN
Feb 1, 2026 QUIN 72 – 65 FAIR
Feb 1, 2025 QUIN 81 – 69 FAIR
Feb 24, 2024 FAIR 85 – 81 QUIN
Jan 28, 2024 QUIN 66 – 64 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FAIR QUIN
Overall 12-20 20-13
Conference 8-12 15-5
Home 8-6 12-2
Away 3-12 7-10
Neutral 1-2 1-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.7 74.0
Avg Pts Against 73.5 72.2
Massey -11.4 (#335) -2.2 (#203)
Bradley-Terry -1.31 (#292) -0.01 (#166)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.98 (#312) -0.06 (#166)
RPI 0.447 (#288) 0.538 (#101)
Shooting & Four Factors FAIR QUIN
FG% 40.3% 42.8%
3PT% 31.9% 29.6%
REB / G 32.1 38.1
OREB / G 10.9 11.7
AST / TO 1.19 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.5% 48.4%
TOV% 15.6% 18.2%
ORB% 29.2% 33.3%
FT Rate 18.9% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.0% 49.3%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 17.4%
DRB% 68.5% 74.6%
Opp FT Rate 24.3% 19.9%

Game Analysis

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