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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–17 on winners spread MAE 9.4 53 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Maryland @ Ohio State	+0.7	151.1	53%	70–73	✓
Temple @ South Florida	-0.7	155.9	47%	91–100	✗
Long Island University @ Wagner	-0.4	118.5	48%	60–47	✓
Le Moyne @ Saint Francis	+6.7	154.3	73%	78–86	✓
Mercyhurst @ Chicago State	+0.8	133.0	53%	78–85	✓
UMBC @ New Hampshire	-7.6	155.4	24%	78–79	✗
Youngstown State @ Oakland	+4.7	134.3	67%	84–75	✗
Elon @ Campbell	+1.5	134.8	55%	58–76	✓
Hampton @ Monmouth	+2.5	140.8	59%	63–68	✓
William & Mary @ Drexel	+3.4	149.3	62%	66–86	✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra	+4.1	131.1	64%	77–68	✗
Jacksonville @ Stetson	-10.5	145.0	17%	74–65	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Florida Gulf Coast	+7.9	149.7	76%	92–74	✗
Canisius @ Quinnipiac	+18.1	148.6	95%	71–89	✓
Niagara @ Merrimack	+10.4	127.3	83%	59–64	✓
Marist @ Fairfield	-5.9	135.2	30%	56–59	✗
Rider @ Sacred Heart	+6.9	146.4	73%	77–89	✓
Iona @ Mount St. Mary's	+4.7	139.5	66%	70–67	✗
Saint Peter's @ Siena	+5.3	125.8	69%	63–77	✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State	+2.3	144.0	58%	63–77	✓
Western Kentucky @ Kennesaw State	+0.2	155.2	51%	69–76	✓
Sam Houston @ Florida International	+0.1	150.3	50%	82–85	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State	+0.1	137.6	50%	80–51	✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Central Connecticut	+11.5	136.5	85%	66–87	✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona	-0.7	143.6	48%	64–69	✗
Montana @ Northern Colorado	+8.0	160.4	77%	86–78	✗
Bellarmine @ North Florida	+14.3	173.5	90%	88–95	✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Valley	+7.7	148.1	76%	73–94	✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ South Dakota State	+3.8	158.2	64%	86–102	✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City	-4.7	140.1	33%	78–72	✓
North Dakota @ Omaha	+7.2	159.6	74%	77–80	✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee State	+11.3	148.2	85%	69–87	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Liberty	+7.6	134.3	75%	53–77	✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana	-3.6	132.1	37%	74–56	✓
Gardner-Webb @ UNC Asheville	+6.2	156.8	71%	70–78	✓
Portland State @ Idaho	+0.7	150.5	52%	76–69	✗
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington	+10.5	133.3	83%	80–83	✓
Loyola Marymount @ Gonzaga	+22.4	151.5	98%	53–73	✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco	-4.5	133.4	34%	64–65	✗
Abilene Christian @ Utah Tech	+1.8	137.9	57%	86–72	✗
South Dakota @ Denver	-3.0	170.3	39%	86–79	✓
Lindenwood @ UT Martin	+7.5	144.7	75%	52–51	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield	-3.2	140.6	38%	81–75	✓
UC Riverside @ UC San Diego	+13.6	142.2	89%	71–91	✓
Cal State Fullerton @ Cal State Northridge	+18.6	150.0	95%	63–82	✓
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly	-0.1	160.9	50%	63–79	✗
UC Davis @ Long Beach State	-3.3	131.7	38%	73–65	✓
San Diego @ Pacific	+3.3	146.0	62%	69–71	✓
Santa Clara @ Portland	-16.8	158.6	6%	97–50	✓
Tarleton State @ Seattle U	+11.3	127.4	85%	54–91	✓
Southern Utah @ California Baptist	+10.4	144.9	83%	60–57	✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech	+0.8	139.0	53%	75–58	✗
Washington State @ Oregon State	+8.4	151.5	78%	74–82	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.