Let fury have the hour / Anger can be power. "Clampdown" - The Clash
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–18 on winners spread MAE 8.6 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Central Arkansas @ Stetson +3.4 148.7 62% 65–75 ✓
UMBC @ NJIT -6.0 149.7 29% 87–64 ✓
UAlbany @ New Hampshire -8.8 145.2 21% 61–57 ✓
James Madison @ Marshall +0.3 143.1 51% 78–80 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +6.8 134.6 73% 74–73 ✗
Oakland @ Wright State +5.8 138.8 70% 62–66 ✓
Charleston @ Hofstra +1.1 139.9 54% 67–61 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Monmouth -2.8 146.2 40% 64–55 ✓
Campbell @ Hampton +8.1 134.4 77% 66–55 ✗
Elon @ William & Mary -1.0 156.0 47% 65–78 ✗
Delaware @ North Carolina A&T -2.3 167.3 42% 98–88 ✓
Drexel @ Stony Brook -6.1 133.2 29% 67–51 ✓
Northeastern @ Towson +1.7 128.9 56% 73–80 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +3.1 144.4 61% 70–75 ✓
North Florida @ Eastern Kentucky +6.1 175.2 71% 74–79 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee +9.8 156.4 81% 79–84 ✓
Florida International @ Louisiana Tech +6.9 137.8 73% 64–81 ✓
Old Dominion @ Louisiana +5.9 148.5 70% 71–60 ✗
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +7.8 142.7 76% 67–84 ✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb +17.3 143.0 94% 75–73 ✗
West Georgia @ Austin Peay +8.1 128.0 77% 72–68 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley +1.8 144.0 57% 64–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts -11.1 157.8 16% 110–96 ✓
VMI @ Samford +18.3 163.5 95% 68–81 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky +5.4 157.3 69% 73–67 ✗
Washington @ Michigan State +14.8 144.3 91% 54–88 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama +4.2 137.7 65% 62–76 ✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah +11.4 134.2 85% 74–66 ✗
UT Martin @ Western Illinois +0.1 133.5 50% 85–83 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Southeast Missouri State +9.4 142.0 80% 66–77 ✓
Tennessee State @ Lindenwood +4.2 150.5 65% 62–72 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois +0.1 142.8 50% 69–64 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Montana +8.3 154.2 78% 76–81 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State +2.1 158.7 58% 83–82 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis +10.7 133.5 84% 53–63 ✓
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech -2.3 155.0 42% 62–74 ✗
North Dakota @ Denver +3.6 157.9 63% 95–70 ✗
Liberty @ Sam Houston -5.1 148.0 32% 76–68 ✓
Pacific @ Washington State +20.6 150.9 97% 95–94 ✗
Idaho @ Sacramento State -2.0 134.3 43% 80–67 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Portland State +4.2 154.2 65% 59–64 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC San Diego +19.1 164.9 96% 68–95 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside +4.0 137.0 64% 83–76 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Santa Barbara +8.2 135.0 77% 66–78 ✓
UC Irvine @ Cal State Northridge -1.7 146.9 44% 77–67 ✓
Oregon State @ Santa Clara +2.8 149.8 60% 81–82 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +24.0 149.1 99% 72–81 ✓
Merrimack @ Sacred Heart +0.9 139.8 53% 66–65 ✗
Kent State @ Buffalo -8.8 136.6 21% 68–49 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Niagara -0.3 125.7 49% 60–70 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.