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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–15 on winners spread MAE 8.1 48 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
West Virginia @ Cincinnati	+2.1	129.5	61%	59–54	✗
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart	+0.7	147.7	50%	92–87	✗
Iona @ Siena	+5.4	140.1	74%	72–79	✓
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's	-2.2	134.0	34%	87–70	✓
Canisius @ Quinnipiac	+11.4	139.1	86%	60–75	✓
Rider @ Marist	+13.3	134.1	85%	52–81	✓
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan	-4.1	142.6	37%	80–75	✓
Chicago State @ Central Connecticut	+9.3	134.1	77%	67–78	✓
Saint Francis @ Mercyhurst	+8.9	132.9	82%	89–98	✓
New Haven @ Long Island University	+9.6	130.7	82%	55–60	✓
Le Moyne @ Wagner	+0.7	140.8	50%	78–79	✓
Stonehill @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-0.0	132.6	51%	58–74	✗
UMass Lowell @ NJIT	+0.9	146.8	54%	56–81	✓
Northeastern @ Hofstra	+9.4	148.1	84%	63–80	✓
Monmouth @ Stony Brook	+2.4	139.0	61%	76–75	✗
Drexel @ Campbell	+1.1	138.1	58%	60–81	✓
William & Mary @ UNC Wilmington	+6.4	151.0	78%	85–78	✗
North Carolina A&T @ Charleston	+10.1	150.6	86%	62–78	✓
Elon @ Hampton	-2.4	143.8	43%	79–87	✗
Mercer @ Chattanooga	-5.8	150.6	32%	75–79	✗
Stetson @ Bellarmine	+5.0	148.2	66%	71–92	✓
North Florida @ West Georgia	+5.4	162.2	70%	81–73	✗
Jacksonville @ Queens University	+7.1	144.9	74%	84–93	✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ Eastern Kentucky	+0.9	154.7	56%	74–76	✓
Denver @ North Dakota State	+12.3	153.7	87%	78–71	✗
Omaha @ North Dakota	+0.5	144.8	55%	73–76	✓
The Citadel @ Samford	+11.6	145.2	86%	64–78	✓
Abilene Christian @ Utah Valley	+14.9	139.9	87%	55–68	✓
Lindenwood @ Little Rock	-1.1	145.3	52%	79–74	✓
Ohio State @ Maryland	-6.5	150.1	26%	82–62	✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech	+8.7	142.7	84%	72–97	✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin	+11.5	132.3	82%	54–76	✓
Morehead State @ Southeast Missouri State	+6.1	141.6	77%	70–82	✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee State	+7.6	138.4	79%	68–77	✓
Memphis @ UAB	+0.1	150.6	59%	90–80	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis	-1.8	145.8	46%	75–85	✗
Northern Colorado @ Weber State	-0.0	157.4	54%	88–74	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State	+8.9	137.4	80%	79–73	✗
Idaho @ Montana State	+4.1	145.5	69%	66–73	✓
Eastern Washington @ Montana	+8.2	149.5	81%	82–74	✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech	-1.2	136.1	43%	84–87	✗
Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky	+4.7	136.8	69%	71–66	✗
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton	+5.5	151.7	72%	72–78	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly	-0.1	163.6	50%	97–96	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC Irvine	+16.9	145.3	88%	62–78	✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego	+12.7	141.8	88%	74–77	✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist	+7.9	144.2	81%	55–56	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Davidson	+11.0	138.7	86%	64–84	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.