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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–16 on winners
spread MAE 9.5
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-7.1 | 128.2 | 23% | 51–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.7 | 139.2 | 62% | 55–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 130.7 | 55% | 78–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 154.5 | 55% | 87–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 138.2 | 58% | 71–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 142.3 | 39% | 78–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 143.1 | 43% | 76–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 146.4 | 55% | 87–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 140.2 | 36% | 64–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.5 | 134.0 | 42% | 80–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.1 | 142.6 | 17% | 64–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 152.9 | 90% | 64–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.2 | 133.1 | 12% | 66–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 141.6 | 49% | 74–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.0 | 146.5 | 66% | 82–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.6 | 147.0 | 87% | 65–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 130.2 | 44% | 69–68 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.6 | 143.7 | 31% | 84–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.6 | 140.5 | 21% | 80–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.4 | 136.1 | 68% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 131.4 | 83% | 59–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.3 | 133.1 | 49% | 65–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 142.8 | 66% | 71–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.8 | 132.8 | 34% | 75–57 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 128.9 | 31% | 74–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.7 | 137.8 | 31% | 73–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.9 | 150.8 | 89% | 65–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 140.3 | 72% | 79–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.4 | 144.0 | 66% | 71–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 138.0 | 72% | 56–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.0 | 124.8 | 90% | 42–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 134.5 | 82% | 56–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 136.6 | 66% | 61–57 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.3 | 126.0 | 44% | 72–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.5 | 131.9 | 22% | 73–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.9 | 136.9 | 84% | 55–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 141.6 | 40% | 54–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 142.6 | 55% | 55–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.0 | 134.1 | 42% | 48–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 141.0 | 46% | 66–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.0 | 148.0 | 70% | 75–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 135.4 | 40% | 58–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 150.1 | 30% | 81–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.9 | 139.9 | 12% | 76–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 157.0 | 82% | 69–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 138.9 | 33% | 69–57 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.