I have got the sharpest knife, so I get the biggest slice. "Revolution Rock" - The Clash
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–9 on winners spread MAE 8.9 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Vanderbilt @ Memphis -7.2 151.9 21% 77–70 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Green Bay +2.0 148.1 57% 64–67 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville State +2.0 133.6 53% 62–59 ✗
UAlbany @ Stony Brook +13.7 144.4 88% 71–55 ✗
The Citadel @ Charleston +13.2 139.2 88% 78–82 ✓
Mercer @ UCF +12.6 153.9 85% 63–81 ✓
Jacksonville @ Florida A&M -1.5 142.9 48% 65–72 ✗
Chattanooga @ Bellarmine +4.8 142.0 66% 64–79 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Wagner +6.3 138.4 75% 64–78 ✓
Siena @ Vermont +1.6 135.5 55% 69–83 ✓
Presbyterian @ East Carolina +1.3 130.4 51% 53–74 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Monmouth +0.5 144.4 48% 85–75 ✗
Alabama State @ Cincinnati +11.2 141.9 85% 51–88 ✓
Youngstown State @ Robert Morris +2.5 137.0 62% 77–80 ✓
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky +3.2 158.8 64% 82–77 ✗
Longwood @ Wake Forest +24.1 154.7 91% 68–71 ✓
Mercyhurst @ Syracuse +16.3 131.1 89% 62–76 ✓
Binghamton @ Pittsburgh +16.2 135.1 90% 63–103 ✓
Texas Southern @ NC State +25.2 156.3 91% 72–108 ✓
Richmond @ Elon -0.0 156.4 46% 70–73 ✗
Wofford @ Wichita State +12.2 137.3 86% 73–84 ✓
Cleveland State @ UAB +18.9 149.7 90% 77–101 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Tulane +1.8 134.1 57% 53–61 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Middle Tennessee +6.3 160.4 75% 67–68 ✓
Houston Christian @ Nicholls +1.2 141.0 58% 64–79 ✓
South Alabama @ UL Monroe -8.1 142.9 24% 96–92 ✓
South Florida @ Alabama +15.5 165.6 88% 93–104 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Ole Miss +8.8 131.6 81% 66–80 ✓
Weber State @ Utah Valley +15.2 144.9 88% 74–90 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Saint Louis +22.3 149.6 91% 53–112 ✓
James Madison @ Old Dominion +1.1 145.4 55% 68–77 ✓
Georgetown @ Marquette +1.7 147.4 59% 78–69 ✗
Arkansas State @ Texas State -3.3 145.8 35% 89–70 ✓
Campbell @ Gonzaga +26.4 153.4 91% 70–98 ✓
UTSA @ USC +22.5 146.8 91% 70–97 ✓
Seattle U @ UC Davis +1.0 141.1 52% 79–78 ✗
North Texas @ Santa Clara +9.5 134.1 83% 60–63 ✓
Portland State @ Colorado +14.5 149.8 87% 73–84 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Stephen F. Austin +9.6 136.3 84% 60–69 ✓
Sam Houston @ Oregon State -0.8 147.3 42% 85–75 ✓
Washington State @ Eastern Washington -2.0 150.4 41% 78–63 ✓
Air Force @ San Diego State +16.3 140.7 89% 58–81 ✓
UT Arlington @ Stanford +8.0 136.7 77% 60–76 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ San Francisco +14.7 141.1 89% 71–85 ✓
Arizona State @ UCLA +6.8 144.7 73% 77–90 ✓
Portland @ Oregon +10.8 147.5 83% 69–94 ✓
North Florida @ Charleston Southern +13.3 148.7 88% 90–113 ✓
Hampton @ Jackson State -8.4 132.2 19% 84–77 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ App State +1.8 134.8 61% 49–67 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Eastern Illinois -2.8 134.2 37% 72–76 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.