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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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21–7 on winners spread MAE 7.8 28 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Western Carolina @ Georgia	+25.3	161.4	91%	82–112	✓
Bradley @ Indiana State	+0.3	139.7	49%	108–99	✗
Temple @ Davidson	+9.7	147.1	82%	68–63	✗
Radford @ William & Mary	+15.3	157.9	88%	83–96	✓
Furman @ Manhattan	-4.9	150.1	27%	75–68	✓
Southern Utah @ Northern Arizona	+10.0	140.8	84%	57–65	✓
American University @ VCU	+18.3	146.8	89%	83–105	✓
Delaware State @ Saint Joseph's	+11.3	135.7	87%	51–67	✓
Lafayette @ Charlotte	+12.1	134.0	85%	67–81	✓
Fairfield @ Central Connecticut	+7.5	142.7	75%	84–70	✗
Norfolk State @ Grambling	+0.2	128.0	53%	68–80	✓
Drake @ Murray State	+8.3	158.3	81%	72–81	✓
Winthrop @ North Dakota	-9.7	151.4	17%	88–90	✗
Kansas City @ Oklahoma State	+22.7	149.8	91%	79–91	✓
Oral Roberts @ TCU	+17.7	143.4	90%	53–72	✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern	+10.2	148.8	86%	67–90	✓
Louisiana @ Southern Miss	+13.4	133.2	89%	54–62	✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee State	+2.1	134.1	60%	71–78	✓
Little Rock @ Southern Indiana	+4.4	139.7	72%	77–62	✗
Western Illinois @ Lindenwood	+12.3	143.4	88%	76–92	✓
Illinois State @ Southern Illinois	+0.3	147.5	53%	75–68	✗
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech	+2.7	150.2	66%	74–85	✓
Pepperdine @ Long Beach State	+2.3	137.4	61%	78–81	✓
Dartmouth @ Sacred Heart	+0.0	147.8	51%	63–85	✓
Grambling @ Hampton	+1.4	133.7	58%	81–72	✗
South Dakota State @ Milwaukee	+0.1	145.0	51%	87–88	✓
Coppin State @ Navy	+18.9	139.7	91%	55–88	✓
Seton Hall @ Providence	-0.3	149.7	47%	72–67	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.