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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–14 on winners spread MAE 7.9 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida @ South Carolina -10.8 142.1 16% 70–69 ✓
Kansas @ TCU -6.4 130.1 25% 74–61 ✓
Xavier @ St. John's +7.6 142.1 79% 71–79 ✓
Longwood @ Radford +2.8 141.6 65% 77–74 ✗
High Point @ South Carolina Upstate -12.8 159.2 14% 86–77 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb +1.1 156.2 56% 61–53 ✗
South Florida @ Charlotte -0.3 141.2 49% 61–69 ✗
Syracuse @ Clemson +12.8 145.1 88% 72–86 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech +3.9 141.0 67% 64–71 ✓
George Washington @ Massachusetts -1.5 151.4 44% 61–74 ✗
Murray State @ Southern Illinois +0.1 140.8 51% 74–64 ✗
Boston University @ Navy +1.1 129.6 57% 47–62 ✓
Lafayette @ Loyola Maryland +2.1 139.1 61% 80–59 ✗
Lehigh @ American University +5.9 134.5 74% 67–68 ✓
Indiana @ Northwestern +4.3 142.1 69% 70–79 ✓
James Madison @ Old Dominion -5.3 135.5 28% 74–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Cleveland State +11.5 137.9 88% 50–65 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland -0.3 143.8 50% 72–76 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay -0.5 144.3 48% 86–77 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wright State +1.0 147.7 54% 95–79 ✗
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro +10.4 142.4 84% 79–78 ✗
Western Carolina @ East Tennessee State +14.1 140.7 89% 58–85 ✓
The Citadel @ Wofford +14.4 135.5 90% 68–79 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Presbyterian +3.1 143.2 64% 61–71 ✓
Valparaiso @ Drake +11.8 130.5 87% 71–81 ✓
Boise State @ Colorado State +0.8 143.8 59% 72–75 ✓
Temple @ North Texas +8.8 136.8 79% 67–76 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis +6.0 144.4 77% 52–64 ✓
Fordham @ Loyola Chicago +6.8 149.4 79% 66–70 ✓
UIC @ Evansville -6.3 137.9 26% 78–67 ✓
Texas A&M @ Ole Miss +4.9 139.2 72% 63–62 ✗
Kansas State @ Baylor +12.1 144.8 87% 62–70 ✓
Florida State @ California -2.5 146.6 41% 68–77 ✗
Nevada @ Utah State +7.0 144.1 77% 69–90 ✓
USC @ Nebraska +6.3 146.3 73% 78–73 ✗
Georgia @ Arkansas +0.5 136.0 50% 65–68 ✓
San Diego State @ Air Force -14.8 123.1 13% 77–76 ✓
Miami @ Stanford +11.7 154.0 86% 51–88 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern +3.2 143.7 64% 58–85 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana -7.1 144.8 25% 89–74 ✓
Hampton @ William & Mary +4.6 144.5 71% 83–94 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +0.6 143.0 56% 86–85 ✗
UMBC @ UAlbany +2.9 156.4 64% 92–87 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine -12.7 141.3 14% 77–61 ✓
Marist @ Niagara -1.7 130.0 38% 67–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.